WV Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Incumbent running

CONOn the ballot

S. Marshall Wilson

—Not published for this candidate

DEMNominee

Rachel Fetty Anderson

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Shelley Moore Capito incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentShelley Moore Capito

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Shelley Moore Capito · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Shelley Moore Capito 99%

DEM Rachel Fetty Anderson 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+21 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat REP 70.3% 2020 general · margin 43.3%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureCONWilsonDEMAndersonREPCapito

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

S. Marshall Wilson$65,287.21

Rachel Fetty Anderson$164,557.53

Shelley Moore Capito$5,449,866.00

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

S. Marshall Wilson$64,037.02

Rachel Fetty Anderson$135,872.68

Shelley Moore Capito$4,690,154.86

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

S. Marshall Wilson$1,250.19

Rachel Fetty Anderson$35,681.48

Shelley Moore Capito$3,071,076.35

Latest pollpercent, as stored

S. Marshall WilsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Rachel Fetty AndersonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Shelley Moore CapitoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

S. Marshall WilsonR+21seat-level

Rachel Fetty AndersonR+21seat-level

Shelley Moore CapitoR+21seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

R+21

Lean (D minus R, points): -21.085
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Shelley Moore Capito	REP	547,454	70.28%
Paula Jean Swearengin	DEM	210,309	27.00%
David Moran	LIB	21,155	2.72%

Total votes 778,918 · winning margin 43.28% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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West Virginia · U.S. Senate · 2026