Influence no longer invisible Races · WY at-large House 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. House · Wyoming · 2026

Wyoming at-large · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Wyoming at-large

← All 2026 races

Race header

U.S. House, Wyoming at-large · Open seat
CONOn the ballot
Jeffrey Haggit
—Not published for this candidate
DEMNominee
Lisa Kinney
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Shawn Johnson
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Chuck Gray
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
>99% Chuck Gray · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Chuck Gray >99%
DEM Lisa Kinney <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+25 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 71.0% 2024 general · margin 47.6%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureCONHaggitDEMKinneyLIBJohnsonREPGray
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jeffrey HaggitNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lisa Kinney$99,131.16
Shawn JohnsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chuck Gray$2,011,264.00
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jeffrey HaggitNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lisa Kinney$66,050.18
Shawn JohnsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chuck Gray$1,850,089.42
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jeffrey HaggitNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Lisa Kinney$33,080.98
Shawn JohnsonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chuck Gray$161,174.58
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jeffrey HaggitNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Lisa KinneyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Shawn JohnsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Chuck GrayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jeffrey HaggitR+25seat-level
Lisa KinneyR+25seat-level
Shawn JohnsonR+25seat-level
Chuck GrayR+25seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+25
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -25.455

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Harriet M. HagemanREP184,68071.02%
    Kyle G. CameronDEM60,77823.37%
    Richard BrubakerLIB9,2233.55%
    Jeffrey HaggitOTH5,3622.06%

    Total votes 260,043 · winning margin 47.65% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.