WY Senate 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Open seat

DEMNominee

James Byrd

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Harriet M. Hageman

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Harriet M. Hageman · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Harriet M. Hageman 99%

DEM James Byrd 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+23 cycles 2020, 2024

Prior result, this seat OTH 73.1% 2020 general · margin 46.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMByrdREPHageman

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

James Byrd$53,560.38

Harriet M. Hageman$2,810,753.95

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

James Byrd$46,560.64

Harriet M. Hageman$3,254,295.30

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

James Byrd$7,927.40

Harriet M. Hageman$439,421.69

Latest pollpercent, as stored

James ByrdNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Harriet M. HagemanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

James ByrdR+23seat-level

Harriet M. HagemanR+23seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2024

R+23

Lean (D minus R, points): -23.402
Presidential cycles: 2020, 2024
Computed: 2026-06-08

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2020 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Cynthia M. Lummis	OTH	198,100	73.14%
Merav Ben David	OTH	72,766	26.86%

Total votes 270,866 · winning margin 46.27% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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Wyoming · U.S. Senate · 2026